Thursday, January 31, 2008

Rudy's Out...Who to Support Now?

Now that Rudy is officially out, several people have been asking me my thoughts on the race now. I'm in a slight funk, so I'm still working out my thoughts. Officially there are still four candidates left: McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Paul.

Paul has never been a factor and never had a chance and still doesn't.

Huckabee also is done. After big losses in SC and FL, he has no chance because if he couldn't win in the friendly south, no way he can win the bigger blue states versus McCain.

The race is now down to McCain and Romney. McCain seems to have the most momentum, especially now with Giuliani and Arnold endorsing him. Also, with Huckabee staying in the race it is pulling some support from Romney, which some are suggesting is part of a strategy for Huck to get the VP nod. If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd predict it is McCain's to lose barring some Dean scream moment.

Being I had to cast my vote by abseentee due to being over here, I've already voted for Rudy in VA. However, who would I vote for between these two and why if I had the chance? That is a very good question and not one I can answer easily.

If you look back at my endorsement post where I ranked all the current candidates in the order that I like them, I have McCain ahead of Romney. My reasoning back then was due to all of Romney's flip-flops on issues of importance. Like I said of Rudy, at least with McCain, I know where he stands and where we disagree. He was also at the time sounding like he was learning some lessons that made him slightly more palatable. For example on immigration he was saying he heard the American people and that the fence needs to be built first before any other option of his plan can have a chance. That to me at least showed a little that he can learn from his mistakes.

However, now that he is clearly the front runner and apparently doesn't think he needs to appeal as much to the conservative base, he is very quickly going back to the McCain we all know and have convulsions over. That is a huge hit for him for me b/c one thing he had going for him was his "straight talk." I didn't agree with him on a lot of things, but I knew where he stood.

All that to say, right now I'm leaning more towards Romney. I still hold to my statement that he hasn't passed the smell test due to his previous statements of being to the left of Kennedy, but he has put himself on a very short limb with his statements in the campaign. If he doesn't live up to his new found conservative values, he knows he has absolutely no shot to be re-elected were he to win in Novemeber as it would be a "read my lips" campaign made in heaven for the Dems in 2012.

Finally, as I've said all along, no matter who the eventual Repub nominee is, I will support that person b/c as I also laid out in my endorsement post, every single one of them is a better option to either of the two Dems left in the race. And if it comes down to McCain vs Clinton, all I'll have to do is put a picture on my desk of her with the title, Madam President, and I'll have all the motivation I need.


FeatherIron said...

It won't be McCain vs Clinton, it will be McCain vs Obamah, that's my prediction.

Mike's America said...

A friend of mine and a veteran of a number of campaigns called me the night before the Michigan primary after having one or two (maybe three) too many adult beverages. He pronounced that McCain would win Michigan and that the race for the nomination was over, end of story and that I better get used to the idea of supporting McCain.

It was with great relish that I called him the next evening as Michigan's results rolled in.

We spoke again on Tuesday the 29th after the Florida results came in. I had to admit that his earlier prediction looks to be the accurate one (minus the Michigan win for Romney).

It's hard to imagine a scenario where McCain's momentum going into Super Tuesday can be stopped. Espeically with Huckaboo as the spoiler.

McCain can win the nomination even though he continues to garner only a small fraction of conservative voters.

And that's going to be the real problem for winning in November. We all know that moderates and Independents are NOT the people you can rely on to make the phone calls, put up the yard signs, go door to door, donate money and do the grunt work a campaign depends on for success.

And McCain continues to make it quite clear that if conservatives disagree with him, he doesn't want our vote. It will be difficult for him now to say that he does.

I'm prepared to vote for McCain and of course I will do my part to publicize the reasons why Democrats should not win the White House. But if McCain thinks I have suddenly become a convert to supporting his ideas for Global Warming, Amnesty for illegals, Constitutional rights for terrorists etc. HE IS WRONG!

DF Robichaux said...

McCain who has been campaigning with a lberial democrat and Romney both have very liberal records, is it any wonder they have been foisted on us by the MSM. The only fiscal conservative left in the race is Paul.
You have a choice: vote for principal and send a message or be a sheep and vote for a big government republican

DF Robichaux

Cajun Tiger said...

FI...Obama is spelled w/o the 'H' =) I'm hoping Obama wins even though I think he would be harder to beat, but that would mean no chance for Clinton to win which works for me.

Mike...very good points.

Robichaux...first thanks for stopping in and hope to see you again and that this isn't the typical Paul spam post. Now to your comment. First, Paul is not a conservative; he is a libertarian. Second, while I do agree with his fiscal policies and appreciate all he has done to control spending, I very much disagree with his trade policies, foreign policies, and illegal drug policies. Lastly, if you read my entire post and not just the Paul line, you will see I have already voted, so even if I were so inclined, I couldn't vote for Paul nor would I if hadn't. As far as anyone else reading your comment, it would also be imho a mistake.

Always On Watch said...

I don't trust McCain. He's a RINO.